Using Mathematics in your Poker Hand Strategy
Wednesday, November 17, 2010 4:36 PMLet's face it, you're not always going to be dealt pocket aces (AA) or big slick (AK) in your starting hands in poker, so using simple mathematics can sometimes provide you the winning edge in poker and help you take in some nice pots that normally would have gone to your opponent(s).
Let's look at a specific scenario where using simple mathematics will often put the odds in your favor and will often yield you good pots!
2 way pot ($5/$10 NL) in the cut-off you are dealt:
Your opponent in the big blind is dealt:
Everyone folds and in the cut-off position you raise to $20 to try and take the blinds. The big blind calls you, with pocket 44's. (pot is $45)
The flop comes:
Your opponent checks ....and its your turn to act.
(let's look at your options from here) In this situation, with your cards 10s Js the flop is nothing spectacular to say the least, you have pair of aces on the community / in common, with a Jack high ...with no flush draw or straight draw possibilities. Your opponent called you pre-flop and checked post flop, which indicates a less than premium starting hand or mid range hand. Any starting premium hand most likely your opponent would have raised you pre-flop, or at the very least would have put a value bet post-flop to get money into the pot. So this should indicate to you that your opponent is definitely sitting with a high card hand (ie: KQ, QJ) or any possible small pair. Seeing the rockets or bullets (AA's) on the flop should seem alarming, but if you look at the "Mathematical" odds of them having a third ace in their hand, there is about an 8% chance (only) that they hold a third ace in their pocket cards, making this a very attractive statistical odd of playing the aggressor now.
So ....knowing that there is only an 8% chance of them holding a third ace in their cards, a well played aggression move would be to RAISE (pot size) to $45 and play as if you have the third ace in your hand, making you a set. It will make it now very difficult for your opponent to call you at the very least, with what they may be holding now in their range to improve or beat a set of aces. The only other fear for you to have is if they were holding pocket 6's which would make them a full house. (not likely and the odds are very small)So if you make a raise pot size of $45, unless they have the third Ace or pocket pair of 6's (mathematically about 8% each), they will most likely fold their hand, bringing you the total pot of $90 your way, with $25 of actual pot profits to you.
In this situation, your opponent is more likely to fold ....as their chances of improving against a set of Aces, is as follows:
- High card King (or smaller), into a Pair: will be drawing dead to a set of Aces.
- Any pair (2 to K), into a Set: will be drawing dead to a set of Aces.
- Any set (K's or smaller), into Quads: mathematically unlikely (about 2% chance)
- Straight or flush draws hitting: unlikely as they need two running cards.
- Any Two Pair, into Full House: highly unlikely (about less than 8%)
So playing more aggressive in this situation and playing as if you had a set of Aces, will more likely than not, reap you some very nice pots and ultimately win you more hands. Turning cards like 10s Js into a strong winning hand, even when you know you may be slightly behind in the hand ...will eventually start to add good earnings to your overall poker play and poker bankroll. And remember, the aggressor always has the advantage, so turn the mathematics of poker to your advantage and you will start to see more chips in your corner.